Distinguishing between population bottleneck and population subdivision by a Bayesian model choice procedure

Co-Authors: Daniel Wegmann, Laurent Excoffier

This is my first paper, published in Molecular Ecology in 2010. Using simulations and an inference procedure called Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), we showed that some methods to estimate population size changes may be biased if population structure is present.

We also showed that it is in principle possible to distinguish these two models, as we showed using two explicit models. For application purposes we demonstrated that the inbreeding coefficient FIS can be used to detect structure. The basic idea is that FIS will be non-zero if the population size is structured, as the two copies in a diplid individuals are from the same deme, and therefore more closely related than expected by chance.

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